Retail Sales Decline


      Government stimulus can not come fast enough as the economy continues to weaken. Advanced monthly retail sales declined -.7% vs an expectation of unchanged. Sales ex auto declined -1.4% vs an expected decline of -.2%. The unadjusted value of sales in 2020 increased .6%, the weakest increase in 11 years.   Retail [...]

Retail Sales Decline2021-01-16T04:31:45+00:00

Surge in Jobless Claims


It is hard to find any good labor market news. The lack of stimulus money, increased lockdowns and surging COVID-19 cases continue to make getting a job difficult. Weekly initial claims rose 181k to 965k.  The increase was the largest since March.   initial_jobless_claims

Surge in Jobless Claims2021-01-14T15:28:41+00:00

Inflation Remains Tame


Consumer prices remains tame. This data gives policy makers little reason to tighten monetary policy. However, asset price inflation (real estate, stock market prices) is an entirely different conversation. cpi

Inflation Remains Tame2021-01-13T18:00:41+00:00

Negative ADP Payroll Print


  The labor market's weakness prior to a "third wave" of covid cases is problematic. However, the market seems to view this release as old news and instead is focused on a Democratic Senate and reflation. ADP Payrolls    

Negative ADP Payroll Print2021-01-06T15:17:58+00:00
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